The controversial extradition bill sparked massive consecutive large-scale protests by the Hong Kong people on June 9, 12, and a young man sacrificed his life, Carrie Lam, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong government, was finally forced to back down and shelve the bill indefinitely.

Pressured under the strong opposition of the Hong Kong people, the bill was only shelved, not completely withdrawn. The Hong Kong people continued to advance, on June 16, nearly two million Hong Kong people took to the streets, setting a historical record, demanding the complete withdrawal of the bill and Carrie Lam to step down.

The situation is escalating. The Hong Kong people not only accused the wrong doings by the Hong Kong government, but also do not rule out to set up an "interim government" as the experiment of Constitutional Square on the spot.

The protests of the Hong Kong people fight to maintain their liberty and safety. It is not only their clash with the Government of HKSAR, it is more fighting against the powerful Beijing regime.

Since the return of Hong Kong in 1997, struggles of Hong Kong people with Beijing have never stopped, protecting the existing rule of law and freedom in Hong Kong, striving to expand democratic elections, and demanding Beijing to honor political commitments. In spite of protests and struggles, Hong Kong people so far failed to break through the bottleneck and achieve significant success.

On the contrary, Beijing has always been outmaneuvering Hong Kong with high proficiency in controlling and influencing. Beijing’s use of wrists has made the political stance of the chief executives more obedient to Beijing without looking after the interests of local Hong Kong people.

Governors of Hong Kong were appointed, Beijing follows suit to select Chief Executives who are obedient. Beijing behaves smarter than the UK to carry out false elections in the small circle.

The freedom and independent judiciary of Hong Kong was protected and guaranteed by a system of democracy. Despite of the non-democratic election of Hong Kong Governors, the United Kingdom has a democratic system that backed up the freedom and independent judiciary of Hong Kong.

With the return of Hong Kong to China, Beijing's autocratic system cannot guarantee what Hong Kong people have enjoyed under the reign of the UK.

Lack of vision, courage and determination during colonizing Hong Kong, Brits did not push democracy in Hong Kong before it was handed to Beijing. Chris Patten, the last Governor of Hong Kong, made his last ditch to implement political reforms bringing democracy to Hong Kong. It was too late. Beijing tried its best to resolutely obstruct. And the British themselves did not support. Today Hong Kong has fallen to a dire situation that freedom and basic human rights has been significantly eroded by Beijing. The UK cannot escape the blame.

Being wise after the event, if democracy were implemented in Hong Kong before its return, Beijing may not be comfortable to take back Hong Kong.

Hong Kong protests are now in full swing. Previous struggles did not yielded major results. Will this time still fade out as before without results and progress? Will the further escalation of the protests lead to Beijing’s re-use of military crackdown causing the 1989 Tiananmen massacre to copy to Hong Kong?

Beijing made a number of political commitments in negotiations with British. Since Hong Kong was handed back in 1997, no sign was shown that Beijing had its intention to honor the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration and the political commitments of the time.

But this does not mean that Beijing had already prepared to deceive the British and Hong Kong people when both sides were entering into contract.

It should be objectively recognized that when the Chinese and British were negotiating the signing of the contract, China was precisely implementing the Open Door policy to the outside world. China’s openness in the political field besides economic development was also commendable.

In-depth and meticulous observations will reveal the politically psychological changes in Beijing's coping with Hong Kong. The first was that Beijing was afraid of Hong Kong to become a base and bridgehead for subverting the Chinese Communist regime. Then Beijing discovered that leaders of Western democracies were mediocre, appeasement and short-sightedness, which encouraged Beijing become more and more bold and turned from defensive to offensive.

The Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 was a turning point in Beijing’s political orientation. First, China’s political relaxation came to end, followed by a rapidly political stagnant and retrogression.

Secondly, the lack of political courage and leadership of then US president George Bush who took no action against Deng Xiaoping's military repression tolerated the massacre, which encouraged the CCP's political retrogression.

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. The appeasement of the West greatly contributed to the constant encroachment of Hong Kong's freedom and the rule of law by Beijing.

Perhaps the world now realizes that Beijing does not abide by its commitments. The West has always misunderstood Beijing, thinking that Beijing can be trusted in the form of a treaty. Beijing has openly tore up the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration. In 2001, Beijing deceived Clinton and the WTO, taking advantage of the convenience of the WTO, but refusing to implement its commitment on joining. It is believed that the trust of West democracies in Beijing has been reduced to an unprecedented low.

Will ongoing Hong Kong protests incur military repression similar to the Tiananmen massacre?
No. First, the locations are different, the massacre took place in Beijing, the heart of CCP regime. Hong Kong is the international financial hub, and Beijing will think twice to resort to force. Secondly, the key person who could prevent the massacre from happening was weak and incompetent Bush who took no action, today is brave Trump who is now severely punching Xi Jinping. Thirdly, the Cold War was there and the West was ambiguous about Beijing, today the West has begun to awaken, so the CCP is already embattled.

It is predictable that Hong Kong protests will continue to escalate, and so long as the West continues publically supporting Hong Kong people, Xi Jinping would not resort to force. It’s not that Xi Jinping is short of guts, but the reality does not allow him to do so.

The main reason that protests of Hong Kong people achieved little is the indifference of the international community that offered little support or only lip services.

Now time and tide has changed. The speaking out of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US Congress, warning to amend "US-Hong Kong Relations Act", directly deterred Lam government and Beijing. Other democracies followed suit. If Hong Kong people persist in protests, it is highly likely to make a fundamental break-through to lay a solid foundation for achieving universal suffrage of Hong Kong in near future.

When Beijing loses its grip in Hong Kong, Hong Kong would be the first domino to trigger the social change of China. Therefore, China's political changes will not be remote.

(The English version originally published at The Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) website.